Tag: Ohio '08 (page 2)

Flooding is such a problem in Southern Ohio that at the request of the Secretary of State, the courts have issued orders allowing voters to cast provisional ballots at their county board of elections. Here is the order for Perry County (pdf)and here is the one for Adams County. (pdf)

Buckeye State Blog is tracking the orders. I agree that this could result in lower voter turnout which would hurt Hillary who is favored in Southeast Ohio. (Bill Clinton carried these counties in the 1992 and 1996 general election, which resulted in his winning Ohio, while Gore and Kerry did not and lost Ohio in the general election.

Obama could be adversely affected by such an order in Athens county, home to Ohio University and it's tens of thousands of students.

Hopefully the candidates' ground operations are prepared for this and have volunteers with vehicles to get people to the polls.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports lots of Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary.

As between Ohio and Texas, it seems to me the media is concentrating too much on Texas, which is all but certain to go Republican in November.

By contrast, as I've written several times this week, and as at least the Minneapolis Star Tribune is now reporting, Ohio could go either way in November.

[Texas] will likely be largely ignored by the eventual nominees this fall even as Ohio is avidly courted. It has become so completely Republican that no Democrat has been elected to a statewide office in the past 14 years.

No Republican has been elected President without winning Ohio since Abe Lincoln. The only Democrats in the past century to become President without winning Ohio were FDR and JFK.

Which Democratic nominee in recent history won Ohio? Bill Clinton -- twice. Why? Because unlike Al Gore and John Kerry, he won southeastern Ohio. Gore and Kerry won big in Northern Ohio but lost the state to Bush.

CNN tongiht said there is a huge ice storm and flood warnings in the state and the hyperactive weatherman said it's so bad polling places may be closed in that area. [Corrected to reflect that the ice storms are not expected in the southeastern portion of the state.]

As for what to watch for in Ohio, this should get you started.

A Cleveland Plain Dealer poll conducted by Mason Dixon of registered Democratic voters who plan to vote in the primary, has Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama, 47% to 43%, with 90% of voters decided on their choice. (Actual poll results are here (pdf.) The margin of error is 4%. There are some geographic and issues differences that may be worth noting.

On NAFTA:

Voters surveyed said they see little difference between the candidates' positions on the North American Free Trade Agreement, which many Democratic voters blame for the loss of jobs in Ohio and which has been a central theme of both campaigns.

On health care, those surveyed prefer Hillary's plan to Obama's, 33% to 18%. Then there's the geographic difference, which may be significant:

The Plain Dealer poll shows that Clinton's biggest lead is among voters in southeast Ohio, a poor region of the state whose voters supported Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. She leads Obama there, 55 percent to 32 percent; Obama's biggest lead is in the southwest, where he is up 52 percent to 36 percent.

It's not just that Bill Clinton won those areas in 1992 and 1996. It's that John Kerry and Al Gore didn't, and even though they blasted Bush in the northern parts of Ohio, they lost the state because of the southeastern rural vote. And, as Ohio goes, so tends to go the country in November: No Republican since Abe Lincoln has won the presidency without winning Ohio. On the Democratic side, in the last century, only FDR and JFK won the presidency without winning Ohio. (FDR lost Ohio most likely because the Republican VP candidate was from the state.)

More...

A newly released Fox News Ohio poll (pdf) of likely Democratic voters in Ohio has Hillary ahead of Barack Obama 46% to 38%. The margin of error is + or - 4%.

CNN takes a look at the "poll of polls" in both Ohio and Texas.

Two "poll of polls" calculated by CNN show competitive races in both Texas and Ohio. The Texas "poll of polls" of likely primary voters shows Obama at 48 percent, Clinton at 44 percent, and 8 percent unsure. In Ohio, Clinton has 47 percent, Obama has 40 percent, and 13 percent are unsure.

The "poll of polls" includes: [More...]

Ohio is considered an important state in the general election. It's generally been a barometer of how the country will go.

A little history: No Republican has won the presidency that didn't take Ohio since Abe Lincoln in 1860. The only Democrats in the last century to win the presidency while losing Ohio were FDR and JFK.

Ohio favors Republicans, although Bill Clinton won the state both in 1992 and 1996. Al Gore and John Kerry both lost the state to George W. Bush.

Here's a map showing in red and blue how Ohio counties voted in past elections.

So how did Bill Clinton win Ohio? He went after the rural vote, not just the urban areas. [More...]

During our live-blog of tonight's debate, Big Tent Democrat thought Hillary should have praised Obama when she had a chance to respond to his answer about whether he would reject Lewis Farakhan's support and endorsement. I didn't think she needed to do that. I thought he was trying to have it both ways -- not alienating his Jewish supporters or Farakhan's.

While many think Hillary's distinction between denouncing and rejecting was artificial, Don Frederick at the LA Times disagrees. I think he makes a good case that Obama was waffling. Hillary just called him on it. See below:

(Update (TL): Our server got overwhelmed by the number of people trying to log on to the site. Even I'm having trouble logging on. Our webmaster is working on it.If you can't get in to comment, try back in a few minutes. Thanks.)

By Big Tent Democrat

My take? NBC stinks. Tim Russert stinks. Brian Williams stinks. Keith Olbermann stinks. Chris Matthews stinks. Who won the debate? No one. Who lost? Everyone.

NBC's coverage of its coverage? We are fair. We are great. How could anyone complain? What a joke.

The Ohio debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama begins momentarily on MSNBC. They will probably stream it if you're not by a tv. Big Tent Democrat and I will be live-blogging.

You can comment same as always in the comment section below. You also can send us live messages through the software. Only comments you post below will appear on the site.

I'll be putting up some polls during it to see how you think the candidates and questioners are doing. Big Tent's posts will say BTD and mine will be TL.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

If comments hit 200, we'll start a new one.